july/2025

Impact of Climate Change on Kalat Division: Droughts, Agriculture Loss, and Water Scarcity

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity, with profound effects on ecosystems, economies, and communities around the world. In Pakistan, the province of Balochistan is among the regions most severely affected by climate-related hazards. Within Balochistan, Kalat Division, known for its rugged terrain, arid climate, and reliance on agriculture and livestock, is particularly vulnerable.
Over the past few decades, rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, and depleting groundwater levels have significantly impacted the livelihoods of people in Kalat Division. These climatic shifts have jeopardized food security, agricultural productivity, and access to safe drinking water. For a region already struggling with poverty, unemployment, and infrastructural gaps, the effects of climate change present a grave threat to stability and development.
This article examines the various dimensions of climate change in Kalat Division, with a particular focus on droughts, agricultural decline, and water scarcity. It also explores the responses by governments, communities, and international organizations, while offering recommendations for building climate resilience in the region.

1. Understanding Kalat Division: Geography and Climate

Kalat Division is located in the central part of Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province. The division encompasses several districts, including Kalat, Mastung, Khuzdar, and Surab. Known for its mountainous landscape, semi-arid climate, and cold winters, Kalat Division has historically depended on agriculture and livestock herding for livelihoods.

1.1. Climatic Conditions

The climate of Kalat Division is primarily arid to semi-arid, characterized by:

● Low rainfall, averaging between 100 to 250 mm annually
● Hot summers, with temperatures exceeding 40°C in low-lying areas
● Cold winters, with snowfall in higher elevations, especially the Zarghun and Koh-i-Murdar ranges
● Frequent droughts and water scarcity due to irregular precipitation
These environmental conditions make the division inherently vulnerable to climatic variability. With the intensification of global climate change, these vulnerabilities have worsened, severely affecting socio-economic stability.

2. Climate Change Trends in Kalat Division

Over the past few decades, significant shifts in climate patterns have been observed in Kalat Division and across Balochistan. Scientific studies, satellite observations, and local accounts point to the following key trends:

2.1. Rising Temperatures

Average temperatures in the region have increased by 1.5°C to 2°C over the last 30 years. Higher temperatures accelerate evaporation rates, reduce soil moisture, and intensify heat stress for crops, livestock, and humans alike. Prolonged heatwaves have become more frequent, affecting health and agricultural productivity.

2.2. Erratic Rainfall and Decreased Snowfall

Rainfall patterns have become increasingly unpredictable, with long dry spells followed by intense but short-lived rain events. The once-reliable monsoon season is now marked by irregularity, often leading to flash floods or drought conditions.
Additionally, the snowfall levels in the Zarghun and Koh-i-Murdar mountain ranges have declined significantly, reducing snowmelt that traditionally fed rivers, springs, and groundwater reserves in Kalat Division.

2.3. Desertification and Land Degradation

As a consequence of rising temperatures and reduced vegetation, large parts of Kalat Division are experiencing desertification. Fertile lands are turning barren, natural vegetation is diminishing, and soil erosion is on the rise, undermining agriculture and pastoral activities.

3. Droughts and Their Devastating Impact

3.1. Frequency and Intensity of Droughts

Kalat Division has always been drought-prone, but climate change has intensified both the frequency and severity of droughts. Over the past two decades, the region has suffered from several multi-year droughts, notably in 1997-2002, 2013-2015, and 2018-2023. These prolonged droughts have reduced agricultural productivity, depleted water sources, and contributed to widespread food insecurity. In many areas, rainfall levels have dropped by over 40%, causing groundwater reserves to dry up.

3.2. Socio-Economic Consequences of Droughts

The socio-economic impacts of these droughts are profound:
● Crop Failures: Major crops such as wheat, barley, apples, and almonds have experienced yield reductions of up to 50%, according to local farmers.
● Livestock Losses: Shrinking grasslands and water scarcity have led to the death or forced sale of livestock at lower prices, undermining household incomes.
● Migration: Thousands of families, especially herders and small farmers, have migrated to urban centers like Quetta, Karachi, and Hub, in search of employment, contributing to urban overcrowding.
● Poverty and Malnutrition: Food insecurity, combined with the collapse of agricultural livelihoods, has pushed many households below the poverty line, increasing malnutrition, especially among children.

4. Agriculture Decline and Food Insecurity

4.1. Shifting Agricultural Patterns

In response to the changing climate, some farmers have shifted towards cultivating drought-resistant crops such as olives, pistachios, and certain hardy vegetables. However, adoption remains slow due to lack of awareness, financial resources, and technical support.

4.2. Declining Orchard Productivity

Kalat Division, particularly the areas of Mastung and Mangocher, was once known for its orchards, producing apples, almonds, and grapes. However, these orchards are now facing:
● Reduced yields due to water shortages
● Poor fruit quality linked to heat stress
● Increased pest and disease outbreaks<

4.3. Economic Implications

Agriculture and livestock contribute to over 70% of livelihoods in Kalat Division. The decline in these sectors has triggered:
● Rising food prices due to dependence on imported produce
● Loss of income for farmers and herders
● Increased unemployment and economic hardship for rural families

5. Water Scarcity: The Growing Crisis

5.1. Drying of Traditional Water Sources

Kalat Division has historically relied on natural springs, shallow wells, and the ancient karez system — a network of underground channels that transport groundwater to settlements and fields. Unfortunately, these traditional water sources are rapidly drying up due to:
● Decreased rainfall and snowmelt
● Excessive groundwater extraction
● Neglect and damage to karez infrastructure
Many springs in areas such as Surab, Johan, and Mangocher have disappeared entirely, forcing communities to depend on expensive or distant water sources.

5.2. Groundwater Depletion and Over-Extraction

The overuse of groundwater, often through unregulated tube wells, has caused aquifer levels to drop significantly. Wealthier farmers dig deeper wells, while small-scale farmers and the poor are left without water for irrigation or drinking. In some areas, the water table has declined by over 100 feet, making groundwater extraction increasingly difficult and expensive.

5.3. Drinking Water Crisis

The water crisis has particularly affected women and children, who often walk 5 to 10 kilometers daily to fetch water. Contaminated water sources have also led to rising cases of diarrhea, cholera, and kidney diseases, worsening public health conditions.

6. Government and Community Responses

6.1. Government Initiatives

The Government of Balochistan and the federal authorities have initiated several programs to address water scarcity and agricultural challenges, including:
● Balochistan Water Management Program (BWMP): Designed to improve irrigation systems and promote water conservation, though hampered by limited funding and implementation gaps.
● Drought Relief Packages: Temporary aid in the form of food, seeds, and fodder, but lacking long-term resilience-building strategies.
● CPEC-Linked Water Projects: Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), projects such as the Naal Dam and small-scale reservoirs have been proposed, though progress remains slow.

6.2. Community Adaptation Efforts

Despite challenges, local communities are adopting several coping mechanisms:
● Rainwater Harvesting: Villages construct small ponds or bandats to store rainwater for domestic use and livestock.
● Climate-Smart Agriculture: NGOs promote drip irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and soil conservation techniques.
● Migration and Remittances: Many families rely on income from members who have migrated to cities or abroad, though this leads to social fragmentation.

7. Recommendations for Sustainable Solutions

Building resilience to climate change in Kalat Division requires a multi-faceted approach, involving government policy, community action, and international support.

7.1. Water Conservation and Management

● Revive and Modernize Karez Systems with technical and financial assistance from the government and NGOs.
● Promote solar-powered desalination units to provide safe drinking water in areas with saline groundwater.
● Introduce rainwater harvesting structures on a larger scale to capture and store rainwater efficiently.

7.2. Climate-Smart Agriculture

● Provide subsidies and training for farmers to adopt drought-tolerant crops such as quinoa, millet, and olives.
● Expand access to drip irrigation and mulching techniques to conserve water and improve soil health.
● Establish agricultural extension services to educate farmers on climate-resilient practices.

7.3. Groundwater Regulation

● Enforce strict regulations to prevent over-extraction of groundwater and penalize illegal tube wells.
● Encourage community-based water management to ensure equitable water distribution.
7.4. Infrastructure and Policy Investments ● Accelerate construction of small dams, check dams, and reservoirs under CPEC and provincial programs.
● Improve rural infrastructure, including roads, markets, and water supply systems to enhance livelihoods.

7.5. International Collaboration

● Seek technical and financial support from global organizations such as the UNDP, Green Climate Fund, and World Bank to implement climate adaptation projects.
● Collaborate with regional research institutions to monitor climate trends and develop innovative solutions.

Kalat Division stands on the frontline of Pakistan's battle against climate change. The region's harsh climatic conditions, coupled with rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and recurring droughts, have severely undermined agriculture, livelihoods, and water security. Without immediate and sustained action, these challenges will intensify, driving greater poverty, food insecurity, and forced migration.

However, with coordinated efforts by the government, communities, and international partners, it is possible to build resilience and secure a sustainable future for Kalat Division. Investments in water conservation, climate-smart agriculture, and sustainable development can help mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, preserving livelihoods and ensuring the well-being of present and future generations.

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